What’s Wrong with Intuition? 直覺錯在哪裡?
Human beings are a complex mixture of rational and irrational, a subtle combination of head, heart and guts. But when it comes to making decisions and managing risk, we seem to favour thinking over feeling. We believe that decision-making and risk management should be structured processes, dispassionately considering options, objectively weighing the odds, and reaching a result that can be fully justified and defended. Yet excluding the non-rational can deny us an important source of information, particularly when dealing with uncertainty. Is there a place for intuition in decision-making or risk management....
人類是理性與非理性的複雜混合體,是大腦、心靈、以及勇氣的精巧組合 。但在制訂決策與管理風險的時候,我們似乎是較偏好思考而非感覺。我們相 信制訂決策與管理風險應該是個結構化的程序、非情緒化地考量各種選項、客 觀地權衡成功的機會、以及獲致一個可以完全判定及辯證的結果。然而除此以 外,非理性對我們的否定也是一個資訊的來源,特別是在面對不確定時。在決 策制訂或風險管理中有直覺存在的一席之地嗎.....
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