ANALYSING ASSUMPTIONS CONSTRAINTS:IF-THEN 分析假定與限制:若...則
No-one knows the future with perfect certainty, which of course is why we need risk management. But sometimes we try to guess what might happen, and use that information as a basis for planning or decision-making. The proper name for such a guess is an "assumption", and these are an important source of risk, for projects, businesses and life in general.
沒有人可以完整地確知未來，當然這也就是為什麼我們需要風險管理的原因。但有時候我們會去猜測有什麼事會發生，然後根據這種資訊進行規劃與決策，這種猜測就稱為「假定」，而這些也就是專案、企業、或更一般而言生命中風險的重要來源。
An assumption is a way of dealing with an uncertain future when there are a number of possible options. In its simplest form an assumption is a decision to proceed on the basis that one option will turn out to be correct and the others will not happen. For example, we might assume that our suppliers will deliver on time, or that our client will sign-off all approvals within two weeks, or that all key members of our project team will remain for the duration of the project. But what happens if we assumed the wrong thing? In most cases a false assumption would lead to a problem for the project, since we usually tend to assume that things will go the way we want.
當未來存在著數個可能的選項時，假定是一種用以處理不確定性的方式，最簡單的假定形式，就是將某 一個選項視為正確而其他選項皆不會發生下決定繼續進行；例如，我們可能會假定供應商將準時交貨、 或我們的顧客會在兩週內簽訂所有同意書、或專案團隊的所有關鍵成員在專案過程中皆會繼續待在團隊 中；但是如果我們的假定錯了會發生什麼事呢？在大部分的情況下，錯誤的假定會導致專案發生問題， 因為我們通常傾向於假定事情會如我們所希望般的發生。
Of course not all assumptions matter equally. There are some assumptions which might prove false without having a significant effect on the overall project, but there are others where a different outcome could be serious. Fortunately there is a simple process for testing how risky assumptions might be, and for including them in the risk process if necessary. A simple IF-THEN statement can be written for each assumption, in the form:
"IF this assumption proved to be false, THEN the effect on the project would be …"
當然，並不是所有的假定都相同重要，有些假定既使證實是錯誤的，卻也不會對整體專案造成顯著的影 響，然而有些不同的結果卻會非常嚴重。好在有一個簡單的程序可以測試有風險的假定會造成的影響， 並且在必要時可以將其涵蓋於風險程序中，每一個假定皆可寫成一個簡單的若…則敘述，其形式如下：
「若此一假定被證明是錯的， 則其對專案的影響為…」
The IF side tests how likely the assumption is to be unsafe, and the THEN side tests whether it matters. Another way of describing this is to see the IF statement as reflecting probability, whereas the THEN phrase is about impact. And probability and impact are the two dimensions of risk. This simple approach can be used to turn project assumptions into risks. Where an assumption is assessed as likely to be false and/or it could have a significant effect on one or more project objectives, that assumption should be considered as a candidate risk.
若的這一方測試這個假定不安全的可能性， 則的這一方測試其是否重要。另一種描述方式為，將若之後 的陳述視為反映其機率，而則之後的陳述是關於其衝擊，機率與衝擊構成了風險的兩個向度。這個簡單 的方法可用以將專案假定轉換成風險，當一個假定被評估為可能錯誤且/或其可能對一個或多個專案目標 有顯著影響時，這個假定應該被認定為可能的風險。
This type of Assumptions Analysis is a powerful way of exposing project-specific risks, since it addresses the particular assumptions made about a given project. There are however two dangers with this technique:
這種假定分析是一種用以發現專案相關風險非常有效的方式，因為他指出了對給定專案的特定假定，然 而這個技術有以下兩種危險：
The first weakness is that this technique can only consider explicit assumptions, which have been consciously made and openly communicated. There are however many implicit or hidden assumptions which we all make every day, some of which are very risky.
這項技術的第一個弱點是只能考慮明顯的假定，這些假定皆為有意地建立且被公開討論過的，然 而許多我們每天都用到的不明顯或隱藏的假定，其中有些風險是很高的。
第一項缺點可以用一種較易於辨識與記錄假定的方法來克服，就是讓一個不屬於專案成員之獨立人士挑戰專案中的既成想法，而為了使這個方法完全有效，假定之分析必須充分公開。
Secondly this approach tends only to identify downside risks, threats that a particular assumption may prove false and result in a problem for the project. Assumptions Analysis is not good at identifying opportunities because most of our assumptions are optimistic.
其次，這個方法僅傾向於辨識負面的風險或威脅，即某特定假定被證明為錯誤時會導致專案出問 題的；然而假定分析在辨識機會上並不好用，因為我們大部分的假定都是樂觀的。
For opportunity identification, the technique can be extended to address and challenge constraints. These are restrictions on what the project can or cannot do, how it must or must not proceed. But some of these constraints may not be as fixed as they first appear - indeed some of them might be assumed constraints. In fact it might be possible for a constraint to be relaxed or perhaps even removed completely. In the same way that assumptions can be tested to expose threats, a similar IF-THEN test can be applied to constraints to identify possible opportunities:
對於機會的辨識而言，此項技術可以引伸至指出並挑戰限制。限制是指專案可以或不可以執行、為何專 案必須繼續或絕不可繼續的條件，然而這些限制條件第一次出現時可能尚未確定，有些甚至是假定的限 制條件；事實上，某些限制可能可以放寬甚至完全移除，這些假定可以用揭露威脅之相同方法來測試， 類似的若…則測試可以應用在限制上以辨識機會：
"IF this constraint could be relaxed or removed, THEN the effect on the project would be …"
「若此一限制可以放寬或移除， 則對專案的影響為…」
Instead of making assumptions about the future, or accepting that stated constraints are unchangeable, being prepared to challenge assumptions and constraints can expose significant threats and opportunities which can then be addressed through the risk process.
除了建立對未來的假定，或接受已知的限制是無法改變的之外，準備好挑戰假定與限制可以揭露顯著的 威脅與機會，然後便可以經由風險程序應付之。