Imaginary Risk 想像的風險

Some say that risk identification is the most important phase of the risk management process , since it is impossible to manage a risk unless it has first been identified. As a result, many risk identification techniques have been developed, including brainstorms, interviews, questionnaires, checklists and prompt lists, assumptions/constraints analysis, SWOT analysis, Delphi groups, nominal group technique, root cause analysis, failure modes analysis and others. Some of these methods are creative and others draw on past experience; some can be undertaken by individuals while others require group input; some approaches are simple and rapid where others are labour-intensive and take time.
有人認為風險辨識是風險管理程序中最重要的階段,因為,除非風險先被辨識出來,否則它是不可能管理的。因此許多的風險辨識技術被發展出來,包括腦力激盪、訪談、問卷、檢核表與清單、假定/限制分析、SWOT分析、德菲群體、提名小組技術、根由分析、失效模式分析、以及其他方法;其中某些方法是創造性的,某些則是基於過去的經驗;某些可以由個人來執行,某些則需要團體的投入;某些途徑簡單且迅速,某些則是勞力密集又耗時。

Whichever risk identification technique is used however, they all require one factor to make them effective. This powerful characteristic is possessed by all but forgotten by most. Every person is born with it, and some people work to develop theirs into a mature capability while it remains dormant in others. This risk identification tool exists in the human head, and is called the imagination.
不論採取哪一種風險辨識技術,都需要一個因素使得這些技術是有效的,這項強而有力的特性是所有人都擁有但被大多數人所遺忘,每個人的這項特性都是與生俱來的,某些人努力發展其成為一種成熟的能力,其他人則保持在潛藏狀態。這項風險辨識工具存在每個人的大腦中,被稱為想像力。

All risk identification techniques require people to imagine potential future conditions which do not currently exist. The success of risk identification depends on people’s ability to envisage imaginary circumstances and possible futures. Without imagination, risk identification is limited to what has happened before, and specific new risks which challenge the current situation cannot be foreseen.
所有風險辨識技術需要人去想像目前並不存在之未來的狀況,成功的風險辨識依賴人們設想一個想像的情境與可能的未來的能力,沒有了想像力,風險辨識僅侷限於過去曾發生過的事項上,而那些對現況有所挑戰的特殊新風險便無法預見。

A range of techniques are available to stimulate the imagination, including visualisation, scenario painting, rich pictures, appreciative enquiry, story-telling and other creativity approaches. Risk practitioners should consider using these to develop their own ability to imagine possible risks, as well as to help their colleagues during the risk identification process.
有一些技術是可以刺激想像力的,包括具像化、情境繪圖、豐富圖(rich pictures)、鑑別問卷(appreciative enquiry)、說故事、以及其他創造性的方法,風險的實務工作者應考慮使用這些方法以發展他們本身想像可能風險的能力,以及在風險辨識過程中協助他們的同事。

One simple and fun way to encourage the imagination is the use of “fantasy questions” to expose risks in a non-threatening way. These can be employed during risk identification interviews, though they might also be used with other techniques. You can ask yourself, or you can question others. Example fantasy questions might include :
一種簡單又有趣可鼓勵想像力的方式為,以非威脅性的方式使用「幻想問題」來揭露風險,這可以在風險辨識訪談的過程中使用,也可以和其他技術一起使用,你可以問自己或問他人。幻想問題的例子包括:

  • “If you were dreaming about your project and it turned into a nightmare, what would be happening?” (this question encourages people to talk about perceived threats)
  • “I am your fairy godmother and you have three wishes to use on your project – what will you do first?” (this might result in identification of new opportunities)
  • “If an alien joined your project team, what would they find most unusual?” (this aims to expose blind spots)
  • 「如果你作夢夢到你的專案且變成了惡夢,那是發生了什麼事情?」(這個問題鼓勵人們討論可感受到的威脅)
  • 「我是你的守護天神你有三個願望可以用在你的專案上--你的第一個願望是什麼?」(這樣也許可以辨識出新的機會)
  • 「如果有一個外星人加入你的專案團隊,通常他們會發現什麼?」(這樣做的目標是揭露盲點)

These examples are light-hearted and may not be appropriate for all situations or organisations, but the principle can be applied in a more serious way. Questions can be asked during risk identification interviews which stretch the imagination and encourage the interviewee to consider options beyond their normal experience. For example : “If you were a new employee and this was your first project, what questions would you ask?” “How might this project be different if it took place in a foreign country?” “When your client lies awake at night, what is he worrying about?” “What are your supplier’s best hopes for this project?”
這些例子是隨意而為的,也許並不適用於所有狀況或是組織,但是此一原則可以更嚴謹地運用。問題可以在風險辨識訪談中提出,這可以延伸想像力並鼓勵被訪談者考慮其正常經驗以外的可能性。例如:「如果你是新進員工,而這是你的第一個專案,你會問什麼問題?」;「如果是在外國發生,這個專案會有什麼不同?」;「當你的顧客晚上睡不著,他在擔心什麼?」;「你的供應商最期望專案怎樣?」

Questions like these (and other creativity approaches) use the imagination to take us beyond the present and the familiar, opening doors to new possibilities. In a sense all risks are imaginary since they do not yet exist, and imagination-based techniques can be powerful aids to risk identification. If you can imagine something, it could happen. Set your imagination free and see what risks emerge!
這些類似的問題(及其他有創意的方法)運用想像力帶我們超越現實及類似現象,打開通往新可能性的門。就某種意義而言,所有的風險都是想像,因為他們都尚不存在,且基於想像的技術可以強化風險的辨識。如果你能想像某件事情,它便有可能發生,釋放你的想像力看看有什麼風險會出現吧!